Note: What Impact Is the Current U.S. Economic Policy Having?
Direct questions about the economic impact of current U.S. policies were not included in the survey. However, at the time it was conducted, Trump's election, his re-election prospects, political style, moral framework, mental fitness, and many of his past business practices were widely known.
These included his tendency to breach contracts, including those he had made, and his repeated use of bankruptcy to eliminate his debts, often at others' expense.
If the current U.S. administration were to adopt a similar approach to managing its debt, such as forcing creditors to extend the maturity of U.S. government bonds to one hundred years, it could be seen as a form of default. Another likely consequence is that only a few creditors would still be willing to buy such risky bonds. That, in turn, could lead to bankruptcy. The government and many private households rely on debt to refinance their spending.
Both potential scenarios - among many others - would cause economic disruption far beyond the United States. It might trigger a collapse of the global financial system, lasting until a new system is established that is no longer centered on the then increasingly weakened or unstable U.S. dollar.
Moreover, at the time of the survey, many people may not have fully anticipated the extent to which the zig-zag policies and the harshness of the U.S. trade tensions under the new administration could affect the global economy.
According to many economists, frequent and abrupt changes in economic policy create uncertainty. Businesses, especially when making long-term investment decisions, rely on stability. In times of uncertainty, they often hold back on investments, which can lead to a recession in the broader economy.
The way Trump is acting could even trigger a global economic crisis. The vast majority of his own supporters would also be ruined as a result.
If you read news about current major public investments, they are often the result of long-term planning, seldom made in the past few weeks. It’s uncertain whether they will be realized due to unpredictable developments. They are still in the "planning" phase or may simply serve as PR. Good PR is also an important aspect for most businesses!
This note is not intended to present political views that may divide readers. Societies tend to function better when they are united, not divided. There are plenty of articles in other media discussing Trump’s methods or the erosion of democratic norms.
Instead, this note serves as a reminder of the potential economic consequences of certain policies, which have already raised concerns among many respected economists.
Unfortunately, this issue often appears underrepresented in many (though not all) industry events and media reports on flexible workspaces.
Formal conference sessions and industry articles tend to focus more on positive business news, self-promotion, or limit the conversation to purely market developments. This is likely due to concerns that addressing politically sensitive topics could spark debate and lead to negative economic consequences for organizers, operators, or other companies in the sector.
As a result, the broader political and economic context that influences the coworking industry often receives less attention than it deserves.
Although this topic was not the main focus of this survey, the potential actions of the U.S. government could have significant negative economic impacts on coworking spaces and their members in the U.S., Germany, and worldwide.
On the other hand, short-term and flexible solutions are becoming increasingly important in times of uncertainty. For this reason, coworking spaces could also become more attractive to more companies. The same applies in the event of an economic crash, in which thousands of businesses would go bankrupt and millions of people would lose their jobs — a scenario few would wish for.
Coworking spaces and flexible work environments would also be negatively affected. However, they are much better suited for new beginnings than traditional office spaces. Especially coworking spaces with real communities can act as natural P2P or B2B incubators, supporting a fresh start far more effectively than isolated work environments.
Like any other business, coworking spaces should stay informed about macroeconomic developments and monitor all relevant factors, even those not directly aimed at their own market. A clear example is staying aware of those that affect their (potential) members!
This opinion reflects, like any opinion article, opinion section or interpretation, only the author's view and not necessarily that of the participating partners in this survey!
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